Centrist News

Subject list/segment time:

  • 00:28 – Trump verses Obama on who has the worst performance loading the U.S. debt
  • 01:20 – As of March 3rd, Trump reaches 9014 false and misleading claims. 11.6 lies or misleading claims per day
  • 01:35 – Review of US Federal debt
  •  03:22 – Trumps “Bullshit” comment: How Trump deflects and deceives; the Trump ‘Swamp’
  • 05:58 – Trumps hypocrisy as ‘Law & Order President’ and how much he rejects law and order
  • 06:23 – Russian Collusion: How Trump helps Vladimir Putin and Trumps lack of intelligence
  • 07:13 – Evidence concerning Russian collusion, ignoring Magnitsky Act, Russian Trump Hotel 
  • 07:52 – Khashoggi killing and Trump’s impeding investigation
  • 08:20 – Trump Organization does not want anyone to know what business they are doing.
  • 08:58 – Economics discussion and Trump focus on protecting his business, ‘not’ America
  • 09:22 – US House Panel launches probe into obstruction by Trump
  • 10:00 – Trump Hotel LOI was signed ‘after’ Trump began his presidential campaign
  • 10:50 – Kushner, security clearance, foreign influence 
  • 11:36 – Trump compared to Hitler; rhetoric verses reality of fascist speech and lying
  • 12:45 – Rosentstein states Mueller report should be public and the William Barr appointment
  • 13:23 – Intelligence: General Michael Hayden
  • 14:10 – What the intelligence view looks like: Trump deceives to protect himself, not America
  • 14:23 – Oligarchs, corruption, lobbyist influence of politicians and fraud
  • 14:49 – Can Trump be indicted? Trump, the Russians and money laundering, Trumps tax returns
  • 16:25 – Trumps RICO case consideration
  • 16:49 – Guardian story on Neo-Nazi agenda and the growth of dictatorships
  • 17:47 – Trump, Racism, lies and idiocy – END REPORT

Natural Cycle in Climate

Natural Cycle (from the climate minute series)
Natural Cycle (from NAS Climate Change: Lines of Evidence)

Understanding the natural cycle in climate allows us to measure where we are now to where we have been in the past. Understanding the difference between past factors in climate change and current factors provides the ability to determine the basis for current global warming.

http://ossfoundation.us/about/team/projects/environment/global-warming/natural-cycle

In the News – 2006

I was remembering the fires back in 2006 and recalled that a reporter from the Union Tribune in San Diego had interviewed me about the fires and the situation in Big Bear. We we discussing the fire a meeting with a representative of the Big Bear Fire Department and I told him he could get a good view of the bark beetle damage from my place. I did not know it then but he included me in his story. Here’s the story he wrote:

In Big Bear: ‘How many times can we dodge the bullet?’

By Alex Roth
STAFF WRITER

July 15, 2006

BIG BEAR – Maybe the massive Sawtooth fire will overrun this popular resort village three hours north of San Diego, and maybe it won’t.

But this much is indisputable: The forest surrounding Big Bear Lake is choked with so many dead trees that a catastrophic wildfire is a very real possibility. Perhaps not today or this week, but eventually.

“How many times can we dodge the bullet?” said John Reisman, 43, an inventor who has lived in Big Bear for 24 years.

Yesterday, as the Sawtooth and the smaller Millard fires merged 10 miles to the southeast, Big Bear residents continued, albeit somewhat nervously, to go about their daily lives.

The Old Miners’ Days Chili Cook-Off was still scheduled for today, as was the Music in the Mountain Summer Concert Series. The owner of the Marina Resort spent yesterday assuring a frantic bride-to-be that she wouldn’t have to cancel her wedding.

Roughly 23,000 people live in this mountain community full-time, and the population can more than double on a summer weekend, when Southern Californians flock here to water-ski, kayak, windsurf and bike the scenic ridge trails.

When it comes to wildfires, residents know the drill. Just three years ago, as the Paradise and Cedar fires were burning in San Diego County, two other fires merged near Big Bear Lake, and the entire village was evacuated. The Old fire and the Grand Prix fire were contained before they could damage any property in town.

Although the town itself hasn’t burned in recent memory, many people here worry that the odds of an apocalyptic blaze continue to climb.

In the past five years, beetles have done enormous damage to the Douglas firs and piñon, Jeffrey and sugar pines that grow in the San Bernardino National Forest, which surrounds the town. Anywhere from 10 percent to 40 percent of the trees are dead, said Bob Sommer, a vegetation specialist with the U.S. Forest Service.

On Wednesday night, some 700 people showed up at the Big Bear Convention Center on the edge of town to hear fire officials outline evacuation plans and give an update on the blaze. Many had already boxed up their valuables, ready to flee west on state Route 18 should the fire hop over the mountain ridge to the southeast.

One man in the crowd, an official at a local summer camp, wanted to know what to do with his campers.

“I have a lot of parents watching the news on all the stations who are pretty freaked out right now,” he told the gathered fire officials.

There is, to some degree, a division of opinion among the locals about whether to encourage tourism in times like these. Many worry that the influx of vacationers will simply make things more difficult in the event of an evacuation.

Erica Gomma, 47, who works in a grocery store and admits to “a lot of tension and anxiety” about the looming blaze, said village officials should do everything in their power to keep tourists away until the fire is under control.

“The congestion is already bad enough,” she said.

But there are those in the business community who think all the media coverage is hurting their bottom line. Yesterday morning – when the sky was blue, and smoke from the blaze all but invisible in the central business district – resort owner Scott Malone didn’t see what the fuss was all about.

“I’ve gotten 200 calls in the last 24 hours from people wanting to cancel their reservations,” said Malone, who owns the Marina Resort. “I don’t smell smoke in the air, I got a blue sky above me, I got a blue lake ahead of me. It’s gotten out of hand.”

By late afternoon, a huge brown cloud of smoke had spread over the entire valley. But still, people continued fishing off the docks and launching their sailboats on Big Bear Lake. Fire officials said the wind was blowing in the opposite direction and, for the time being at least, the town was safe.

Reisman, the inventor, was cautiously optimistic that the village would be spared. Every few hours, he’d go on the Internet to check wind conditions.

He was hardly relaxed, however. Standing on the porch of his cabin overlooking the Big Bear ski lodge, he pointed at swaths of dead trees on a mountain ridge in the distance.

“The last four or five years they’ve started dying real fast,” he said.

Making matters more combustible, Reisman lives in a log cabin built by hand. Asked what type of wood his house is made of, he replied, “Flammable.”

Source: http://www.utsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060715/news_1n15bear.html

Will the ‘real’ debt please stand up!

While most are concerned about the National debt reaching 16 trillion dollars, most are missing the very real and even bigger problem of the ‘National Debt Obligation’ now pushing past 70 trillion dollars. More than 400% more than the national debt.

 

Links

Of Virtue, Wisdom, & Perspective

[Note: It has been pointed out to me, quite appropriately, that without context for the connotative values of truth and reality that I am inferring, the article makes less sense. For context I am using ‘truth’ as the absolute and reality as the perspective bias form the individual.]

 

Plato, perspective, truth, reality… tribes? Learning, knowing, understanding are all limited to various degrees by how we see that which surrounds us; and similarly we are affected by how people and surroundings influence us. Believing that our reality is ‘truth’ seems more an arrogance of self than a stronger more reliable view of that which is, which remains hidden to various degrees by the shadows of our own view… which humans too often perceive as truth.

Plato & Perspective

Plato (424/423 BC – 348/347 BC) learned to explore under the tutelage of Socrates. Along with Aristotle who developed what might be called a more mechanistic view of the world and human consciousness. Plato explored the subtlety of the meandering mind. Almost as if he saw different groups of perspectives like clouds that change shape with the wind, or ‘look’ different depending on where you stood.

…for he is good who has a good soul. But the cunning and suspicious nature of which we spoke, he who has committed many crimes, and fancies himself to be a master in wickedness, when he is amongst his fellows, is wonderful in the precautions which he takes, because he judges of them by himself: but when he gets into the company of men of virtue, who have the experience of age, he appears to be a fool again, owing to his unreasonable suspicions; he cannot recognize an honest man, because he has no pattern of honesty in himself; at the same time, as the bad are more numerous that the good, and he meets with them oftner, he thinks himself, and is by others thought to be, rather wise than foolish.

Platos Rebublic, Book III

Sub-culturalism may have been thought by Plato as a cinema screen upon which shadows are displayed. His insightful examination of bias and perspective gives one a reasonable context to understand how group-think works. It also illustrates that when one is out of ones element, it’s a whole new ball game.

In our current reality, the dynamics remain the same. The playing field is larger and there are infinitely more creative ways to institute group-think in a sub-culture. Between the dawn of the radio and television age, to the broad savanna of the internet, cultural perspectives have entirely new mechanisms by which to foment and project status, or attachment to a particular group.

Still today, wandering outside of the group (tribe) into other forums increases risk to the established status of the individual. Once outside the group where status is recognized, one realizes that one is no longer recognized for status. If the status did not reach across cultural boundaries, suddenly the individual is in a new world.

Beliefs are the center of sub-cultural reality.

These shared beliefs create the general boundaries for a group. Take a republican and send him to a gathering of democrats and the republican might find that his ideals are not so well accepted as they are in his own group. Either way, humans still tend to tribe-up, so to speak.

In the evolution of consciousness, or awareness of these realities, what would it take for humankind to begin to recognize that too heavy a reliance on group-think actually diminishes ones capacity to expand and learn, to become wiser? We are globally interdependent upon the support systems of the commons of earth. We are also stressing these systems.

Environment and Sub-cultural Perspective

Cognition seems to be the pivot upon which a mind can change. As Oliver Wendell Holmes once said, “A mind stretched by an original idea can never return to its original form”. The question then becomes; what does it take to stretch the mind so that the original idea becomes part of the cognitive awareness of the individual?

Pandora’s Box has always been open in the minds of humankind, and along with mischief and mayhem come hope and potential. But all of this is a paradox. We are capable of greatness and evil, and through our sub-cultural beliefs we follow pre-ordained paths that can limit our view and evolution. One may also argue Pandora’s Box is merely the chaos of our kind; and in that, it is the impetus and impediment that is boon or bane to our human potential. But does not understanding rely upon knowledge and perspective?

Examining the Filter

How human experience and cognition filters through its array of perspective beliefs, to find it’s own reality, in its own subculture, in ones own context, is a process of path. But as Plato would likely say, It’s still just another shadow on the wall.

Socrates and PlatoThe more important question may be: what will it take for the mind of humankind, individuals and groups to go beyond the safe harbor of the convenience of ones own cultural trappings and perspective, to explore and evolve socially, as individuals in (a) larger group(s), to recognize the larger truths hidden or masked by our realities?

For it seems that wisdom of such a nature would be the fertile ground of virtue that could elevate the individual within the reality of our commons, to realize that a group of individuals can be stronger than a person in a group. And a person still may be weaker than an individual, for the person often wears the mask of the group and it’s perspective. It seems that without such cognition built upon the foundation of reason on the pedestal of the individual, we may not evolve as one would like.

In our global commons, how do we separate the wicked and the foolish from the honest and wise? That we may, as a global community, make decisions that support our mutual needs and goals of achieving greater potential for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness? To become strong, or stronger individuals in the human tribe, to be a part of and yet stand upon the strength of our own power to be; and to contribute to the commons and profit from mutual exchange to our benefit? This is the question we face as a human society. For upon this potential and our ability to achieve it, lies our future.

 

Plato on Wikipedia

Climate Change: Lines of Evidence Movie

The National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, Board on Atmospheric Science and Climate, has produced this movie to explain what is known about climate science.

I directed the movie working with the NAS and many different science organizations and scientists that assisted in development of the many different aspects of science illustrated in the movie.

Climate Change: Lines of Evidence:

National Academy Page

The production took 16 months from beginning to end and we finished with a very good movie that helps simplify the science and clearly show the general state of knowledge regarding the nearly two centuries of development in the study of climate change.

Movie Credits

CLIMATE CHANGE: LINES OF EVIDENCE

Produced by
THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

With support from the
NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

Based on expert reports by
The National Research Council:
including the America’s Climate Choices series

Directed & Narrated by
JOHN P. REISMAN

Production Supervisors
NANCY F. HUDDLESTON
CHRIS ELFRING

Writing/Screen Adaptation by
NANCY F. HUDDLESTON
and JOHN P. REISMAN

Science/Content
Contributors/Reviewers:
RICHARD ALLEY
DAVID ARCHER
TONY BUSALACCHI
ROBERT CORELL
EDUARD DUNLEA
CHRIS ELFRING
LAURIE GELLER
RALPH KEELING
IAN KRAUCUNAS
JOHN KUTSBACH
MICHAEL KING
ARTHUR LEE
PAM MATSON
JERRY MEEHL
RAY PIERREHUMBERT
MICHAEL PRATHER
BENJAMIN SANTER
GAVIN SCHMIDT
CLAUDIA TEBALDI
DONALD WUEBBLES

Graphics/Animations/Camera
Goddard Space Flight Center
Rebecca Fischler
Haritomedia GmbH
Sharon Martin
Jannis Productions
Makiko Sato
Gavin Schmidt

Video & Images Courtesy of
Department of Energy (DOE)
Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL)
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)
Hadley Meteorological Center
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
International Space Station (ISS)
Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA)
John P. Reisman, OSS Foundation
Kendrick Taylor, Desert Research Institute
The Koshland Museum
National Academy of Science (NAS)
Nat’l Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA)
Nat’l Atmospheric & Oceanic Administration (NOAA)
National Climate Data Center (NCDC)
National Hurricane Center (NHC)
National Research Council (NRC)
National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Nat’l Physical Measurement Laboratory (NIST)
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

Climate Change Security & Communications

Here are a collection of the talks done by co-convener John P. Reisman (OSS Foundation), Chris Field (IPCC WGII, AR4), Guy Brasseur (Former Dir. NOAA) Q&A directed by Don Weubbles (IPCC WG 1, AR4) sections of those talks from the OSS Foundation talks done at the AGU Fall Meeting in 2011 where 22,000 scientists converged to discuss the latest in Earth physical science. The complete set of OSS talks can be seen by visiting the OSS Foundation web site.

Friday, Dec. 9, 2011

Climate Confluence Issues (Energy, Environment, Economics, Security)
  • 01:53 – Chris Field: Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate
  • 18:51 – Guy Brasseur: Climate Change & Security
  • 36:00 – John Reisman: Climate Confluence Issues U.S. Navy TFCC N/A –  Overview of Issues
  • 42:20 – John Reisman: Overview of Climate Confluence Security Issues
  • 49:33 – Q&A Chris Field, John Reisman, Don Wuebbles:

Monday, Dec. 5, 2011

Context and Relevance in Climate Communications

00:40 – John Reisman

Climate Communications: Zürich, ETH

Understanding what climate change means in relation to our economy, and security, is critical in enabling public and policy makers to comprehend what is involved in formulating a better path toward meaningful solutions.

This talk was presented at the ETH in Zürich in at the EMS (European Meteorological Society) / ECAC (European Conference on Applied Climatology) meeting on September 16, 2010.

Balancing Economies

Accounting is essential for business and governance, or even a family, to understand what ones capacities are in order to make better decisions. Balancing the budget gives us precision in understanding where we stand with deficits and surpluses.

When considering our economies, we need to understand these economic capacities and deficits in order to know where we are, and what is possible in the near future, or long term. This allows us to determine how healthy our economies are, and their respective capacities. We need to know if we are overdrawing on economic capacity, or if we will be able to afford accumulated debt in consideration of future economic capacity to sustain operations. This of course is risk/ratio analysis and general accounting based on relevant factors. And we need to balance the books and make sure we can stay in business.

So what are we really talking about?

The global economy of course. But it’s not what you might think. It’s not about the money. It’s about the resources we trade in markets to build our buildings, provide our services, and manage the food and water supply for our communities.

The economy is a combination of our ‘resources, and capacity‘. It includes minerals, chemicals, food, water, and all the systems that support or supply us, and our needs. It also includes services, and that includes knowledge and understanding. Intellect, expertise and understanding is a resource that can be bought and sold on a supply/demand basis. So there are ‘many’ components to our global economy that are not monetary. Money, is merely our means of exchange.

In effect, our economy includes ‘systems and materials’ that keep ‘us’ alive and functioning.

What are these systems?

First there is our immediate environment: land, ocean, atmosphere and solar energy to power it all. Without the sun, we would not have energy to burn anyway. Besides, fossil fuels are really just stored solar energy.

Then you have our elements, which we use in manufacturing processes. Of course land and water to produce food. The atmosphere is an exchange system to transport energy and water to different regions supporting biological and agricultural systems. Then you have human productivity. This is our interaction with all these systems to take the benefits of the resources and turn them into products we make, sell and use.

So, what would happen if we overtaxed our resource economy? Let’s say we overtaxed an economy to the point of it’s demise. Well, that just means we don’t have that economy anymore (unless other economies that were dependent on that economy also failed due to the loss).

So, what does over-taxation really mean?

Climate Science History

Global warming natural cycle: understanding the difference between the main climate drivers of the natural Milankovitch Cycles and how that influences natural variation in ice, oceans, vegetation and seasons, helps us understand how the earth moves in and out of ice ages. From this context we can more easily understand the forces involved in our current global warming. Written & narrated by John P. Reisman. Science review by: Mike (Michael) Mann, Jeff Severinghaus, and James Maslanik, with special thanks to Ralph Keeling, David Archer, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner.

The reality is that as early as 1896, Svante Arrhenius predicted the earth may warm due to the production of  industrial greenhouse gases. As early as the 1950’s we had enough understanding to see that the assumptions made in the 1800’s were standing on firm scientific ground. The fact that we have not been doing anything about it has nothing to do with insufficient understanding of the science, it has to do with insufficient understanding by industry, policy makers and the public as to how climate change can and will impose negative impacts that will resonate throughout our entire economic infrastructure.

For more information click here: Climate Science History